If you've listened to the national headlines over the past few years, you've probably heard the same prediction over and over again:
"The housing market is about to crash."
Well...here we are.
And that's simply not what's happening in Northeast Tennessee.
In fact, the latest housing data tells a very different story.
Here's the 30-Second Summary
Before we dive into the numbers, here are the five biggest takeaways:
Home sales are up 8% across the entire MLS and 4.5% throughout the Tri-Cities.
Home prices continue to rise—up 3.6% across the MLS and 4.75% in the Tri-Cities.
Johnson City continues to lead the region with a 16% increase in median home prices.
Erwin saw one of the biggest jumps in activity, with home sales increasing 60% year over year.
Despite years of predictions that the housing market would crash, Northeast Tennessee continues to show steady growth, healthy appreciation, and strong buyer demand.
Data visualization courtesy of Don Fenley, CoreData.
Homes Are Still Selling
One of the easiest ways to tell whether a market is healthy is by looking at how many homes are actually changing hands.
The latest numbers show:
Home sales across the entire MLS increased 8% year over year.
Within the Tri-Cities alone, sales increased 4.5%.
If buyers were truly sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash, we wouldn't be seeing more homes closing than we were a year ago.
People are still relocating.
People are still retiring.
Families are still growing.
Life continues—and real estate moves right along with it.
Home Values Continue to Climb
Not only are homes selling...
They're still appreciating.
Median home prices are up 3.6% across the MLS.
The Tri-Cities market is up 4.75%.
That's not the explosive appreciation we experienced during 2020 and 2021, but honestly, that's a good thing.
Healthy, sustainable appreciation is what creates a stable market for both buyers and sellers.
Johnson City Is Leading the Charge
One statistic really jumped off the page.
Johnson City's median home price increased more than 16% compared to last June.
That tells me demand is still incredibly strong.
When you combine quality healthcare, East Tennessee State University, great outdoor recreation, and a lower cost of living than many larger cities, it's easy to understand why so many people continue relocating here.
Johnson City isn't slowing down—it's continuing to attract buyers from all over the country.
Don't Sleep on Erwin
One of my favorite numbers in this report came from Erwin.
Home sales were up 60%.
Now, it's important to remember that smaller towns naturally have bigger percentage swings because there are fewer total sales.
But it also tells us something important.
More buyers are expanding their search outside the larger cities and discovering communities that offer incredible mountain views, small-town charm, and affordability.
So...Where's the Crash?
This is why I always encourage people to be careful about listening to national headlines.
Real estate is local.
What happens in California isn't necessarily happening in Tennessee.
What happens in Florida doesn't automatically affect Johnson City.
And right now, our local market continues to show:
More homes selling.
Home values increasing.
Strong buyer demand.
Continued population growth throughout the region.
Does that mean every home sells in a weekend? No.
Does that mean sellers can price their home however they want? Absolutely not.
Today's market rewards strategy—not luck.
My Take
The Tri-Cities housing market doesn't look like a market that's crashing.
It looks like a market that's gaining momentum.
The frenzy of 2021 may be behind us, but the fundamentals remain strong.
Buyers are still moving here.
Homes are still appreciating.
Communities like Johnson City and Erwin continue to outperform expectations.
If you're thinking about buying or selling, don't let national headlines make your decision for you.
Look at what's happening right here in our backyard.
That's where the real story is.
Source: Housing statistics and graph courtesy of Don Fenley and CoreData's "Johnson City Powers Broad June Housing Market" (July 13, 2026).
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